Adani Ports on the Rise: 3 Key Reasons Jefferies Sees a 10% Upside
Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd (APSEZ) saw its share price climb 6%, and according to global brokerage Jefferies, there’s still more room to grow. With a revised target price of ₹1,475 — nearly 10% higher than the current level of ₹1,346 — Jefferies highlights three major factors that support its bullish outlook on the stock.
1. Shift Towards Margin-Led Growth
APSEZ's strategic shift from volume-focused growth to end-to-end logistics solutions is starting to bear fruit. In FY25, the company managed to offset a 7% drop in coal volumes with a strong performance in other segments. Non-coal volumes surged 16% YoY, led by container volumes which jumped 22%. International volumes also saw a 70% increase from a low base. This diversified growth allowed the company to post a 7% YoY volume rise, hitting 450 million tonnes — close to its guidance range.
Jefferies notes that this margin-driven performance has prompted them to raise their FY26-27 EBITDA estimates by 3-4%, recognizing the operational efficiency and pricing power now being unlocked.
2. Strong FY26 EBITDA Outlook
The company has provided robust guidance for FY26, supported by volume growth, integrated service offerings, and expansion in marine and logistics operations. Jefferies highlights that trucking and marine businesses are projected to grow by 3-4x and 2x respectively over the next two years.
Capex plans of ₹110-120 billion for FY26, largely directed at domestic and international port expansions, logistics, marine services (5%), and digitization (12%), will drive future scalability and efficiency. This strategic investment underpins the expected acceleration in EBITDA, giving confidence to investors.
3. Ambitious Long-Term Vision
Looking further ahead, Adani Ports has reaffirmed its bold vision: achieving 1 billion tonnes of cargo volume by 2030 across domestic and international operations. This goal represents a 17% compound annual growth rate, and the company is banking on its expanding port network, digital capabilities, and integrated logistics to get there.
FY25 also marked the launch of APSEZ’s international freight and trucking services through a low-asset model, enhancing its logistics footprint. Its marine segment, with a focus on high-growth regions like the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and West Africa, is targeting a threefold rise in EBITDA by FY27 to over ₹1,700 crore.
Final Thoughts
Adani Ports' strategic focus on margin-led growth, integrated logistics, and ambitious global expansion is setting it up as a major player in the maritime and logistics space. With Jefferies projecting a further 10% upside, investors are watching closely as APSEZ charts a course toward long-term value creation.
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